While the polls had been showing a 50/50 race all fall, last night still came as a shock with voters handing a decisive victory to Donald Trump and the Republican party. Here, we lay out a few reasons for the election results and the implications for policy going forward.
People hate inflation
There has been an ongoing debate over why, when nearly every economic indicator is pointing the right way, Americans have been so down on the economy and have rated Biden so poorly on it. The clear answer is inflation. Inflation has an outsized hold on people’s assessment of the economy. Inflation affects everyone and, crucially, it’s easy to understand. While you only really care about the unemployment rate when you’re looking for a job, you notice the price of gas and groceries every time you leave the house. It’s not surprising that Americans would be upset about high costs over the past few years, nor that they would vote accordingly.
The implications for fiscal policy
The Obama administration’s response to the Great Recession was hampered by inadequate fiscal stimulus and a counterproductive concern over deficits which led to years of elevated unemployment and sluggish economic growth. Determined not to make the same mistake, Biden’s economic policy team leaned into fiscal stimulus, pushing for passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and delivering the fastest recovery from the COVID recession of any advanced economy. Unfortunately, even though the inflation of the past few years had much more to do with supply chain issues and the hangover from COVID than fiscal stimulus, my biggest fear is that future policymakers will over-learn the lessons from this election, and future recessions will once again be met with half-measures.
The implications for climate policy
Trump and congressional Republicans have talked a big game about repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, but with the benefits of the legislation disproportionately going to Republican states and congressional districts, the odds of a full, head-on repeal are low. However, with the upcoming fight over the renewal of the TCJA, the IRA tax credits could wind up on the chopping block as congressional Republicans look for ways to lower the cost of their tax cuts. And on the regulatory front, Project 2025 calls for eliminating key offices like the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, ARPA-E, and the DOE Loan Programs Office.
The IRA is the most consequential piece of legislation since the Affordable Care Act and represents our last, best hope at meeting our climate goals. Everyone, from climate activists to the businesses who benefit and the workers they employ, should make protecting this legislation and the Biden climate legacy their top priority over the next four years.
Harris ran a good campaign
Post-COVID, voters across the globe have thrown out their incumbents, right or left. The fact that Harris, who faced significant headwinds including being tied to an unpopular incumbent and starting her campaign only four months before election day, fought this to near a draw is a testament to her strength as a candidate and the discipline of her campaign. Yes, there were some messaging decisions that I disagreed with, but the team in Wilmington and across the country was smart, savvy, and played a bad hand well.
We’ve been here before (but this time it’s worse)
It is difficult to come to terms with the fact that millions of Americans took a look at Trump, a convicted felon with a history of sexual assault and misconduct, who lead a violent mob in an attempt to overthrow a free and fair election said “yeah, that guy,” but it is at least not quite the shock that it was in 2016. Thankfully, the progressive movement is more organized and more prepared to push back against Trump than it was eight years ago. Which is good, because he spent his time out of office tightening his grip on the Republican Party, and this time around there will be very few internal checks on his extremist agenda. With the Supreme Court in Trump’s pocket, a Senate (and potential House) majority, and an administration staffed with loyalists, outside organizing will play a crucial role in preserving democracy over the next four years.
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